Many of us have just experienced one of the hottest summers in a while, if not ever. Personally speaking, dealing with the 50 degrees Celsius in Paris was definitely not on my bingo card for the summer, and if that wasn’t enough, it will only get hotter next year according to French media such as TF1. With the increasingly hot temperatures the world is already facing, I found this prediction a little hard to believe.
The main culprit of the next major heatwave: the El Niño effect. This year’s onset of the natural climate phenomenon has been brewing since June 2026, and is predicted to be the strongest one recorded since 1950. This force will lead to an unprecedented spike in temperatures, and its effects will soon reach Canada, if it has not already. Yet, the phenomenon remains misunderstood by many. To cure that confusion, here is a guide to help understand what is to be expected in the coming months and why it will occur.
El Niño: The Agent of Chaos
In brief, the El Niño phenomenon is a natural planetary occurrence that happens in the Pacific ocean, which then affects the entire world. The event tends to happen every 2 to 7 years, and lasts up to 9 to 12 months, which is why we call it an “El Niño year.” In simple terms, the El Niño phenomenon is when the waters in the Pacific Ocean become warmer than usual. This occurs through positive feedback loops where weakened wind patterns cause sea temperatures to warm in the tropical pacific region. These waters do not cool down and self- regulate as they usually do, affecting ocean patterns around the world. Ultimately, this change leads to the disruption of weather patterns across the world. In a podcast episode of The Daily from The New York Times, Chico Harlan describes El Niño as “the biggest reorganizer of the earth’s climate apart from the change in seasons”.
Now, El Niño is a natural phenomenon, and scientists state that it has been occurring for centuries. In the 1600s, locals in Peru noticed tropical fish coming into their seas every couple of years. Although at the time they couldn’t name it, this event was the result of El Niño. This raises the question: if El Niño has been happening for so long, why are we talking about this specific one so much?
The phenomenon is usually measured across a geographical rectangle in the Pacific ocean. This region foreshadows the intensity of the effects we are to expect. Usually, in an El Niño year, we can see a 0.5 degree Celsius gap in usual ocean temperatures. A super El Niño is defined by a 2 degree gap, and this usually causes droughts and unusual storms across the globe. What scientists are currently predicting for the present El Niño, is a 3 degree gap. While there isn’t a scientific term to describe the magnitude of the phenomenon, I guess we could call it a SUPER DUPER El Niño here.
What does this mean for us?
El Niño is currently active, and is rapidly increasing in strength in the tropical Pacific Ocean. However, effects on Canada may be delayed. The last time Canada felt the effects of El Niño was in 2023. That year, Canadians witnessed milder winters with less snowfall, as less precipitation and heat was created from the phenomenon. This El Niño was categorized as a super El Niño. This year, there is an extra degree of intensity, and although it may not seem like it, the effects of this shift are extremely severe. Similarly to 2023, Larry O’Neill, a professor at Oregon State University, tells Canadians to expect limited snowfall and less extreme cold weather this winter. However, the moderate winter is to be mixed in with extreme irregularities as well. Cold and heavy snowfalls are also predicted; a long and steady winter is not in the cards this year. This also means that extreme heat waves are anticipated in the spring and summer. Wildfires will persist and expand quicker in North America, as droughts are also to endure across various regions.
Unfortunately, the rest of the world, and especially countries closer to the Pacific, will be more severely impacted. Almost 50 million extra deaths are predicted from this El Niño phenomenon. These deaths will be due to irregular droughts, disrupting the harvest season. Hurricanes and rainfall patterns will also increase, damaging homes. Basically, El Niño this year is going to create global mayhem. However, El Niño patterns are quite predictable, meaning that the anticipatory funding for agriculture production and early harvesting has already taken place in order to prepare for the event.
Are El Niño and Climate Change Connected?
That is the current million dollar question amongst scientists today. There is no empirical evidence that El Niño frequency is increased by climate change. However, what is certain is that the Earth is already experiencing abnormal weather conditions from climate change, just like the European summer I witnessed this year. These hot temperatures and disruptions will definitely be amplified by the El Niño effect, adding insult to injury. One could say that this strong El Niño year, after an already very warm one, is just very bad timing, and not correlated. However, this year’s extreme El Niño degree can also be seen as a glimpse of what is to come in the 2030s from climate change alone.