UK Prime Minister Theresa May has said the government is willing to pay more alimony than originally stated. Speculation puts the figure at £40 billion (C$67.7 billion), which is still less than the EU’s request for £60 billion (C$101.56 billion). Even if this new sum receives approval from the remaining 27 EU members, the border disputes with Ireland remain a dire matter.

An EU working paper states that trade trade rules must remain the same on both sides of the Irish border to avoid a hard border. This effectively requires Northern Ireland to remain in the customs union and single market, both things the UK government hopes to avoid when leaving the EU.

Without any sort of deal, the UK and would have to abide by the World Trade Organization’s regulations.

The UK has stated that it will uphold the Good Friday Agreement that decommissioned paramilitary groups, and opened the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. Ireland, and citizen groups in Northern Ireland, have made it known that they will not accept a hard border on the island. Varadkar has stated that the Irish government will accept nothing less than a written promise on the surety of the Irish border.

Given the problem of the Irish border, it seems increasingly unlikely that Brexit talks wil move on to the second round at the EU council meeting on December 14 and 15. UK Brexit negotiator and finance secretary Philip Hammond is confident that he will have a proposal ready by that date.Should the proposal not be accepted, the UK has threatened to suspend negotiations until the EU is ready to take the UK’s proposals seriously. Suspending talks would further postpone the withdrawal process. meaning that the departure of the UK from the EU would be delayed until March 2019.

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Negotiations for this proposed coalition between The Free Democratic Party (FDP), Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU), and the Green Party, were tense from its inception. These negotiations involved two centre-right parties: the FDP and the CDU/CSU, and one the left-wing Green Party. After the FDP left negotiations, apparently because of disagreements with the Greens, Germany is left uncertain on how to form a stable government. In an interview with German magazine Der Spiegel, the leader of the FDP, Christian Lindner, said the collations had “no ideas, no trust, no stability.”

Other Potential coalition governments include: the “GroKo” (grand coalition) between the CDU/CSU and centre-left Social Democratic Party (SPD); however, after losing 40 seats in the September elections, SPD leader Martin Schultz declared that his party would not go into coalition with the CDU/CSU under Merkel again. There is also a potential for a “traffic light coalition,” a coalition of the SPD, FDP, and Greens; however, the FDP has already shown that it cannot work with Greens, rendering this union unlikely. An historic coalition between the CDU/CSU and either the FDP or the Greens, or even a coalition between the CDU/CSU and the the much opposed far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) could be formed. The CDU/CSU could also run a minority government alone, but Merkel has expressed concerns over a minority government, saying that a minority government does not posses the stability necessary to govern properly.

Alternatively the German president, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, could call new elections, though these would likely not take place until February. Be that as it may, Steinmeier does not wish to call new elections, saying that the inability of parliament to form a coalition should not be pushed back to the people. Steinmeier, a member of the SPD, seems to favour renewing the grand coalition, and has been pressuring Schultz to do so, though he is also meeting with all party leaders in an attempt to find a solution.

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