Byelection liveblog

Posted at 09:43PM on Mar 17, 2008 by NSmith

Four by-elections will be decided tonight, all former Liberal ridings. I'll be updating throughout the evening, mainly by sitting in front of the TV and internet (low expense budget here at The Daily) so stick around.

21:42:00: Strategists from the three main parties are spinning on CTV NewsNet like they've been drinking all weekend. The Liberal guy just told the NDP guy to "breathe". It's going to be a long night....

21:43:26: The Tory guy just talked about St. Patrick chasing the snakes out of Ireland. Anyone pick 13 minutes as the first St. Patrick reference time pool (besides me alluding to it above)?

21:46:06: We're on commercials at NewsNet and still on The National on CBC NewsWorld. Which means it's probably a good time to mention where you can find results as they come in. Polls close at 9:30 EDT everywhere except BC, where it's 10, so, because of the broadcast law, no results for another 14 minutes.

21:54:05: On CTV they're talking about Jason Kenney's effect on this election, which seems odd, since they also just mentioned him with regards to the Brenda Martin story and how he's going to Mexico to hopefully solve it.

21:55:54: The Greens are dead in the next general election if they get less than they got last time in Vancouver Quadra, which is about 5 per cent, at least according to the reporter on CTV now. That's an awfully high bar to set.

21:58:12: Polls are almost closed. Seems John Turner is running for neorhino.ca. Does Turner really think that after only two years of the Liberals being out of power, he has a better chance of returning as PM for the Rhinos than the Liberals?

22:00:49: So NewsWorld is going with what I'm guessing is another repeat of last night's doc on The Passionate Eye. Really? Another doc? Come on, guys, where's Don Newman?

22:05:34: Liberals are getting hammered in early polls in Northern Saskatchewan, the only riding that was at play, really. I heard a number of people today say all the ridings were "Liberal strongholds", which, considering the last election it went 41.4-41.1 per cent, seems pretty moronic, but 51.8-29.5 doesn't look good.

22:09:27: Brad Levine from the NDP is saying how this election is good for Stephen Harper, because with Bob Rae in Parliament, that will be one fewer person not voting against the Conservatives. Nice one, Brad...ignoring that for the past six months no one has been voting in that riding, and it was Liberal before anyway, so it would have been the same result anyway.

Now they're arguing about the Green vote again. You know what, I agree with Kady: can Brad Levine and Scott Reid just stop arguing? Where's the love?

22:13:28: Oooh, a Belinda Stronach name-drop. (Tory talking about how Stronach pushed Martha Hall Findlay (running and likely winning tonight in Willowdale) aside last election.) Please, no one use that five-letter word starting with "b" (no, not that one; the one ending in "o").

22:20:07: The Greens are doing well in downtown Toronto, hovering between second and third at 15 per cent. Which is pretty good, but a) it's a by-election and b) as people are saying on CPAC, it's a good place to park your vote, especially given a). And considering Mark Warner was booted from the Tories there, hard feelings may be pushing the Green vote up, since it's still 6 per cent in suburban Toronto.

22:26:16: David Orchard's booting from the Northern Sask riding may be hurting turnout for the Liberals, and maybe Dion should have let him run, so says someone on CTV. While David Orchard is certainly an interesting character with an interesting history (see the Wikipedia link above), I find it amusing that after opposing the new Conservative Party and supporting Dion, he got dropped by Dion, thereby seemingly helping the new Conservative Party.

22:33:09: Seems when CTV went back to their strategists, they asked the first question to Tim Powers (the Tory). I suppose it was so we could get a minute of freedom from the sniping we kept getting from the other two. Sadly, he's so boring I want to stop listening. How's my Minesweeper game going?

22:35:53: Less than three minutes: not bad. Levine congratulated Bob Rae on winning (you could just see how much he loved Rae when he said that) and then, with what have been, so far, clearly disappointing results, starting attacking the Liberals for doing nothing these past few months. The obvious response (given): why are we (the Liberals) ahead, and you behind -- and in three cases, the Greens?

22:40:17: We have 10 polls reporting in Vancouver (finally) and the Liberals are beating the Tories 338-307. Come on, guys, let's stop trying to make any sort of generalized prediction from that when there are 80,000 voters in the riding. Also something that should be stopped: Dee-ahhhn. Rhyme with tone, or clone; at least that's a fair bit closer. (That includes you, too, Bill Graham; a former interim leader should know better.)

22:48:29: John Turner from the neorhino.ca party is beating Psamuel Frank (no, not a typo) from the Canadian Action Party 8-2. You know, while some people find it fun betting on elections, betting on votes of such minor candidates might actually be easy to rig, as, in this case, it seems it would take a large family to tip the scales. (Not that I condone illegal betting or buying of or rigging votes in any way, or anything illegal, for that matter.)

But if you didn't set that one up beforehand, a better one to go for is whether the turnout in any of the ridings will beat the dismal turnout in the Alberta general election.

23:00:36: Bob Rae has started his acceptance speech by thanking all his volunteers and his family, etc. Interesting strategy: networks can't turn away until the substance is over. Sort of like Stephen Harper's strategy of talking in French first to keep the English networks around.

23:02:14: Oh, God: Bob Rae just thanked all the people who live in the riding -- those who are hard working, families, straight, gay, "black, brown, yellow, red, white". I thought it must have been misheard, but no, the delayed broadcast on CPAC confirms it. When was it that we decided as a people that calling people "yellow" (to pick just one) was no longer acceptable? Was it, possibly, before Bob Rae was born? (Actually, no: he's pretty old.)

23:11:44: Fleetwood Mac as the entry into Martha Hall Findlay. I haven't had to deal with all these songs repeated again and again, like those actually in the business, but, please, stop, thinking about anyone wanting to hear Fleetwood Mac at another political rally, starting tomorrow.

23:16:10: "There's a group of women in Willowdale that we affectionately call the 'Liberal Willowdale Women'." I assume they spend all their time thinking up catchy, original names. (And, you know, getting, with a Conservative and NDP woman, a combined 94.1 per cent of the vote.)

23:23:23: Barring huge polling stations with 100 per cent turnout that all go Liberal, the Conservatives have Northern Saskatchewan. With the two star Liberals elected in Toronto, we've only got Vancouver to deal with, which we can essentially separate into three groups (with half the polls reporting, percentage / votes):

Liberal-Conservative (36.5-31.9 / 4,721-4,121)
NDP-Green (16.3-14.8 / 2,105-1,919)
neorhino.ca / CAP (0.4-0.1 / 56-16)

The NDP and the Greens have been swapping third place all night, but the NDP seems to be pulling ahead, just slightly. The other two battles have not flipped at all. Even more interesting is third place in Toronto Centre, where the Greens are leading the NDP by 13 votes, a count lead which has flipped back and forth every minute or two.

23:41:12: Oh, more yelling between Brad and Scott on CTV. Look, the NDP had a bad night, and the Liberals got their three expected wins, but that's par for the course, and Vancouver and Saskatchewan were a lot closer/not as close (respectively) as expected.

Really, by-elections. They can show a trend, but that's it. Just like a poll, "snapshot in time". Let's all agree that everyone can spin it to say they've done well. Unless the Liberals decide to call it a bigger disaster for them beyond anything that the numbers could suggest, leading to more leadership infighting than ever before.

So while I'm having a lot of fun here, St. Patrick's Day Weekend is catching up to me (as is other work I need to do), and since Vancouver Quadra is probably done, the most interesting race is third in Toronto Centre. Scott and Brad are still yelling at each other, with Tim (the Conservative) just sitting back, quiet, shaking his head. And I'd prefer not to hear anymore of this.

So so long from my first ever liveblog. I hope it was as fun for you as it was for me, and hopefully we'll get another event to cover that's more interesting than a SSMU Council meeting. (There will be an election in Westmount--Ville-Marie, the riding McGill is in, before the end of July, so stay tuned.)